Welcome to The San Diego Dirt!
Welcome to the first edition of the San Diego Dirt.
We started this because we notice things that happen in our city that most people are not talking about. New buildings going up overnight. Neighborhoods changing fasts. Rents doing things no one expected. And nobody was really connecting the dots for San Diegans.
That is why we started this newsletter. Every week I’m going to break down what’s happening in San Diego real estate. New developments, big sales, market shifts and what it actually means for you. Whether you’re a renter, an investor or just someone who loves the city and wants to under stand where it’s headed. Glad you are here. Let’s get into it.
THIS WEEK'S BIG NUMBER
One stat. Plain English. Why it matters.
6.0%.
San Diego’s apartment vacancy rate just hit its highest point in over 15 years. That number might sound small, but it’s a sign that something is shifting in the market. We break it down below.
If you're a renter, this is a good chance for you. Negotiate hard. Ask for a free month. Look at new luxury buildings first, they're the most desperate to fill units right now. The power has shifted to renters for the first time in years and most people don't even realize it yet.
If you're an investor, don't panic but don't sleep either. The short term is soft but San Diego's long term story hasn't changed. Military, biotech, lifestyle, weather. The fundamentals are still there. The question is whether you can weather the next 1824 months while the market rebalances.
Market Pulse
What’s happening in the SD Real Estate Market Right Now?
6,100 units delivered in 2025 a 25year high
8,100 units currently under construction
Average asking rent: $2,556/month
Rent Growth: 0.1% year over year
40% of landlords offering concessions
What it means: There’s a correlation between the higher vacancy and unit delivery rates. Supply has outpaced demand leaving units sitting empty. With this in mind, we can expect to see developers dropping the asking rents in order to fill these units. Keep this in mind before signing your next lease.
What’s being built?
New Developments and Construction Updates Across SD
Developers continue to add muchneeded supply to the market. See below for a few notable projects taking place.
A rendering of Riverwalk San Diego
Riverwalk San Diego 721 units in Mission Valley. Hines development. Est. completion June 2028
Avalon Mission Valley 621 units on Friars Rd. AvalonBay. Est. completion April 2028
The Torrey 450 units, 34 stories Downtown. Holland Partner Group. Est. May 2026
Park Summit 284 units, 21 stories at 555 Upas St. Est. May 2026
Broadstone Mission Valley 497 units, 8 stories. Alliance Residential. Est. May 2026
Notable Sales
Big deals that closed recently across San Diego.
The Resort at Encinitas 198 units sold for $110M ($556K/unit) Jan 2026
Dylan Point Loma 180 units sold for $91M ($506K/unit) Feb 2026
Haven Poway 107 units sold for $38.8M ($363K/unit) Feb 2026
The Resort at Encinitas
🏆 Neighborhood Spotlight:
San Diego River
Mission Valley Mall
This week: Mission Valley San Diego’s Most Active Submarket
If you want to understand where San Diego real estate is headed, start in Mission Valley. The neighborhood sitting in the middle of the county flanked by freeways, the San Diego River, and some of the best freeway access in the city is in the middle of a transformation that most people are only beginning to notice.
The Middle of Everything
The numbers tell the story. Mission Valley currently has more than 10% of its entire apartment inventory under construction right now. That's the highest construction ratio of any submarket in San Diego. Over 3,299 units are in the pipeline on top of the 815 units that were delivered in the last 12 months alone.
What's driving it? A few things. The City of San Diego's Complete Communities initiative has allowed for higher density development near transit corridors and Mission Valley sits along the trolley line. That's opened the door for developers to build bigger and taller than they could before. Old retail centers and underutilized office buildings are being torn down and replaced with apartment complexes. The neighborhood is essentially being rebuilt from the ground up.
What's driving it? A few things. The City of San Diego's Complete Communities initiative has allowed for higher density development near transit corridors and Mission Valley sits along the trolley line. That's opened the door for developers to build bigger and taller than they could before. Old retail centers and underutilized office buildings are being torn down and replaced with apartment complexes. The neighborhood is essentially being rebuilt from the ground up.
THE DIRT
San Diego is the 6th most expensive rental market in the entire country yet rents are actually falling right now. Wrap your head around that.
25,000 to 30,000 San Diegans are leaving the county every year for more affordable markets. That outmigration is one of the biggest drags on apartment demand right now.
SB 79 passed at the end of 2025 eliminated parking requirements near highpriority transit and allows for taller denser development. The full impact of this law is still being figured out but it could be a big deal for North County and South County development near trolley lines.
Evictions are becoming a major pain point for SD landlords. Courts are so backed up that the process can take up to 8 months from start to finish with little guarantee of recovering unpaid rent. Operators are starting to move faster on delinquencies as a result.
Landlords are getting creative about revenue. Higher pet rents. Unbundled utilities. New vendor fees. When you can't raise the base rent you find other ways. Keep an eye on your lease renewals.
4 & 5 star apartments the shiny new luxury buildings have a vacancy rate of 10.6% right now. Nearly 1 in 10 luxury units in San Diego is sitting empty. And more luxury supply is coming. The first computer bug was literally a bugin 1947, Grace Hopper found a moth trapped in a Harvard Mark II computer, coining the term "debugging" in the process.
Before you Go
That's a wrap on Issue 001 of the San Diego Dirt.
We know this was a rather brief introduction to the page, but we wanted to keep it that way to give you a feel for what is to come.
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See you next week. 📍